The consumer price index increased 4.0% in August from one year ago, the fastest pace since April, after a 3.3% rise in July. That’s faster than the median estimate of 3.8% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Monthly, the index rose 0.4%, double expectations. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.1% in August, matching the 4.1% increase in July.

Canadian inflation is no longer trending downward, presenting problems for the Bank of Canada. The BoC’s preferred 3-month core measure rose by a whole percentage point to 4.5%. The incoming data highlight the challenges in this phase of the inflation fight.

In addition to facing higher energy prices, Canadians paid more for rent and mortgage interest in August. Moderating the all-items CPI were declines in prices for travel-related services and a minor increase in food prices compared with the previous month.

The CPI was up 0.4% in August, following a 0.6% gain in July. The monthly slowdown was mainly driven by travel tours (-6.4%) and air transportation (-6.9%), as prices fell month over month following the peak of summer travel demand in July.

According to Bloomberg calculations, a three-month moving average of the measures that Governor Tiff Macklem has flagged as key to his team’s thinking rose by a full percentage point to an annualized pace of 4.49%.

The mortgage interest cost index also contributed to the acceleration in shelter prices, rising slightly faster in August (+30.9%) compared with July (+30.6%).

Although year-over-year price growth for groceries slowed in August, price levels remained elevated. On a year-over-year basis, prices for food purchased from stores rose 6.9% in August compared with an 8.5% increase in July.

Gasoline prices in September thus far have already risen to 10% above year-ago levels, so September inflation is likely also high. The additional problem for the Bank of Canada is that core inflation measures have also risen and will likely remain sticky on the high side. This has increased the odds of another rate hike this year.

Mitigating the Bank’s inflation concerns is the slowdown in economic activity. Employment growth has slowed as the jobless rate rose to 5.5% and job vacancies fell. Excess demand has also fallen. Financial strains in the household, financial and business sectors are emerging as delinquency rates on non-mortgage debt have soared. A pause in BoC rate hikes is warranted, but if the economy starts to pick up again or core inflation continues to hold steady or rise, additional rate hikes cannot be ruled out.

The national sales data were depressed in August by declines in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Montreal, Ottawa, Hamilton-Burlington, London and St. Thomas.

The number of newly listed homes edged up 0.8% m/m in August, adding to the cumulative gain of more than 24% between March and July. New listings started 2023 at a 20-year low but are now closer to average levels. Recent survey data suggest pent-up supply is coming down the track as many homeowners reported they planned to their home in the next three years.

With sales falling and new listings edging up in August, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 56.2% compared to 59% in July and a peak of 67.4% in April. The measure is now closely aligned with its long-term average of 55.2%.

There were 3.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2023, up from 3.2 months in July. While the measure is up a bit from its recent low of 3.1 months in May and June, it remains below the second half of 2022 and well below its long-term average of about five months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged up 0.4% on a month-over-month basis in August 2023— only about half as large as the July gain, which was only nearly half as large as the gains recorded in April, May, and June. This leveling off of prices aligns with slowing sales and a rebound in listings.

While prices are stabilizing at the national level, regional differences are re-emerging. Price growth has remained solid in Quebec and the East Coast, followed by British Columbia and the Prairies. Ontario is now a mixed bag, with some of the more significant increases and some of the bigger declines.

As of August 2023, the Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.4% y/y. This was the first year-over-year increase since September 2022. Even though prices appear to be leveling out near current levels, year-over-year comparisons will likely continue to rise in the months ahead because of how prices continued to decline through the second half of 2022.

With the Bank of Canada moving to the sidelines and more supply gradually coming on board, housing activity will likely pick up in the coming months. Year-over-year home prices will rise owing to base effects, as lower prices were posted in the fall and winter of last year, making the y/y comparisons more favourable. We don’t want to see a burst of activity because that could cause the central bank to rethink its rate pause.

Housing affordability remains a significant problem for buyers, but recent data released for the second quarter shows an uptick in first-time purchases despite the affordability crunch.

The housing shortage and the resulting high cost of rent and buying are political issues at all levels of government. On Thursday, Prime Minister Trudeau pledged to cut the federal Goods and Services tax on constructing new apartment buildings as part of a promised host of measures to address affordability issues. Canadians are used to such actions by the feds, but the housing shortage will only worsen until municipalities address impediments to densification, building delays, and development costs.