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Housing starts trend upward in September

General Wing Kei (Winson) Lam 18 Oct

Housing starts trend upward in September

Ottawa, October 18, 2023

 

The trend in housing starts was higher in September at 254,006 units, up 3.9% from 244,511 units in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.

The monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada increased 8% in September (270,466 units) compared to August (250,383 units).

The monthly SAAR of total urban (centres 10,000 population and over) housing starts increased 9%, with 250,766 units recorded in September. Multi-unit urban starts increased 10% to 207,689 units, while single-detached urban starts increased 3% to 43,077 units in September.

Total SAAR housing starts were up 98% in Montreal and 20% in Toronto in September, while Vancouver recorded a decrease of 17%, driven by declines in both single-detached (-12%) and multi-unit (-18%).

The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 19,700 units.

Quote:

Both the SAAR and trend in housing starts were higher in September. Multi-unit starts activity has persisted and maintained similar levels to 2022 despite the higher interest rate environment. This has helped offset double-digit declines in single-detached starts in all provinces. In fact, September was the second highest month this year for multi-unit starts. It seems the current higher interest rate environment has not yet had the expected negative impact on multi-unit construction activity so far in 2023 ,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist.

Key facts:

  • Actual 2023 year-to-date housing starts were 22% and 37% higher than the same period in 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver, respectively.
  • Nationally, year-over-year starts for September were down 8% in centres of 10,000 population and over, driven primarily by significantly lower single-detached starts.
  • Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
  • Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the September housing starts data on November 16 at 8:15 AM ET.
  • CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and to obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.
  • Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.

As a trusted source of housing information, CMHC provides unbiased housing-related data, research, and market information to help close knowledge gaps, and deepen understanding of complex housing issues to inform future policy decisions. Housing starts facilitate the analysis of monthly, quarterly, and year-over-year activity in the new home market. The data we collect as part of our Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys helps us obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply and is used as part of our various housing reports.

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For information on this release:

To request an interview with a CMHC market analyst, contact:

Media Relations, CMHC
media@cmhc-schl.gc.ca

July Housing Starts in Canada — All areas


 

 

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over (Provinces)
Single-Detached All Others Total
September 2022 September 2023 % September 2022 September 2023 % September 2022 September 2023 %
N.-L. 46 61 33 8 27 238 54 88 63
P.E.I. 1 8 ## 0 10 ## 1 18 ##
N.S. 281 191 -32 104 537 416 385 728 89
N.B. 133 91 -32 310 429 38 443 520 17
Atlantic 461 351 -24 422 1,003 138 883 1,354 53
Qc 537 440 -18 3,156 3,947 25 3.693 4,387 19
Ont. 2,068 1,294 -37 9,168 7,266 -21 11,236 8,560 -24
Man. 227 137 -40 138 222 61 365 359 -2
Sask. 104 142 37 119 114 -4 223 256 15
Alta. 1,461 1,185 -19 1,962 2,923 49 3,423 4,108 20
Prairies 1,792 1,464 -18 2,219 3,259 47 4,011 4,723 18
B.C. 747 522 -30 3,527 2,638 -25 4,274 3.160 -26
Canada (10,000+) 5,605 4,071 -27 18,492 18,113 -2 24,097 22,184 -8

Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over (Metropolitan Areas)
Single-Detached All Others Total
September 2022 September 2023 % September 2022 September 2023 % September 2022 September 2023 %
Abbotsford – Mission 43 24 -44 125 12 -90 168 36 -79
Barrie 152 40 -74 395 123 -69 547 163 -70
Belleville – Quinte West 27 16 -41 17 0 -100 44 16 -64
Brantford 51 6 -88 46 27 -41 97 33 -66
Calgary 590 554 -6 1,089 2,180 100 1,679 2,734 63
Chilliwack 24 27 13 220 10 -95 244 37 -85
Drummondville 30 8 -73 58 42 -28 88 50 -43
Edmonton 678 464 -32 782 620 -21 1,460 1,084 -26
Fredericton 48 28 -42 77 283 268 125 311 149
Greater / Grand Sudbury 10 0 -100 18 5 -72 28 5 -82
Guelph 6 8 33 123 116 -6 129 124 -4
Halifax 80 78 -3 22 508 ## 102 586 475
Hamilton 100 36 -64 89 167 88 189 203 7
Kamloops 10 47 370 5 78 ## 15 125 ##
Kelowna 44 17 -61 208 151 -27 252 168 -33
Kingston 61 38 -38 22 44 100 83 82 -1
Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo 86 38 -56 213 498 134 299 536 79
Lethbridge 19 24 26 3 8 167 22 32 45
London 61 52 -15 245 127 -48 306 179 -42
Moncton 35 24 -31 214 135 -37 249 159 -36
Montréal 152 99 -35 1,962 2,583 32 2,114 2,682 27
Nanaimo 21 11 -48 132 6 -95 153 17 -89
Oshawa 87 86 -1 221 10 -95 308 96 -69
Ottawa – Gatineau 287 193 -33 1,728 1,306 -24 2,015 1,499 -26
Gatineau 33 48 45 124 219 77 157 267 70
Ottawa 254 145 -43 1,604 1,087 -32 1,858 1,232 -34
Peterborough 50 11 -78 6 0 -100 56 11 -80
Québec 55 68 24 414 568 37 469 636 36
Red Deer 10 13 30 1 10 ## 11 23 109
Regina 21 32 52 59 34 -42 80 66 -18
Saguenay 18 18 24 15 -38 42 33 -21
St. Catharines – Niagara 95 73 -23 697 308 -56 792 381 -52
Saint John 28 24 -14 0 5 ## 28 29 4
St. John’s 34 42 24 4 20 400 38 62 63
Saskatoon 77 105 36 45 20 -56 122 125 2
Sherbrooke 30 25 -17 125 84 -33 155 109 -30
Thunder Bay 17 30 76 8 30 275 25 60 140
Toronto 499 406 -19 4,931 4,469 -9 5,430 4,875 -10
Trois-Rivières 15 16 7 62 85 37 77 101 31
Vancouver 419 251 -40 2,293 1,922 -16 2,712 2,173 -20
Victoria 53 41 -23 217 175 -19 270 216 -20
Windsor 68 35 -43 122 11 -91 183 46 -75
Winnipeg 61 108 -43 95 159 67 283 267 -6
Total 4,372 3,216 -26 17,117 16,954 -1 21,489 20,170 -6

Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data — Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR) (Provinces — 10,000+)
Single-Detached All Others Total
August 2023 September 2023 % August 2023 September 2023 % August 2023 September 2023 %
N.L. 499 608 22 300 271 -10 799 879 10
P.E.I. 235 95 -60 612 120 -80 847 215 -75
N.S. 1,035 1,183 14 1,396 6,241 347 2,431 7,424 205
N.B. 984 778 -21 5,548 5,203 -6 6,532 5,981 -8
Qc 4,736 4,484 -5 38,337 40.501 6 43,073 44,985 4
Ont. 13,006 14,164 9 66,586 84,637 27 79,592 98,801 24
Man. 1,522 1,532 1 4,596 2,664 -42 6,118 4,196 -31
Sask. 1,167 1,571 35 4,524 1,368 -70 5,691 2,939 -48
Alta. 12,260 13,041 6 27,465 35,275 28 39,725 48,316 22
B.C. 6,255 5,621 -10 39,516 31,409 -21 45,771 37,030 -19
Canada (10,000+) 41,699 43,077 3 188,880 207,689 10 230,579 250,766 9
Canada (All Areas) 55,592 56,880 2 194,790 213,585 10 250,383 270,466 8

Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value